FORECASTING AS BACKGROUND OF INVESTMENT DECISION IN AN INDUSTRY

Alexandru Matusoiu

“We have this handy fusion reactor called the sun. You don’t have to do anything. It just shows up every day and produces ridiculous amounts of power.”

“The obvious problem with the sun is that it doesn’t shine at night.”

THIS IS WHY FORECASTING IS NEEDED!

USA energy market plummeted in 2011 due to chinese subsidies in the sector.

IT GETS WORSE..

VARIABILITY & UNCERTAINTY:

 principle forecasting challenges.

Compared Models

Linear 

Model

Artificial Neural Network

Autoregressive model

DIFFERENT FORECAST RESULTS DOESN'T MEAN ONE IS MORE ACCURATE THAN THE OTHER

Both forecasts must be "held to be accurate" in a Nash equilibrium like situation.

Thank you!

Do you have any questions?

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Public - 7/20/16, 11:07 AM